The business aviation market in Q2 2026 is telling a fascinating story of resilience matching up against industrial constraint. Demand from passengers and buyers hasn’t slowed down, but the industry is bumping up against a “supply-driven ceiling.” Growth isn’t being limited by a lack of interest, but rather by OEM production bottlenecks and a heavily congested maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector.

Here is a breakdown of the key trends shaping the market this quarter.

FLIGHT ACTIVITY: THE WHEELS KEEP TURNING

Flight hours are still on the rise, proving that the operational demand for business aircraft remains a core priority for corporations and individuals alike.

• Sustained Growth: North American flight activity is projected to climb 1.9% in 2026, on track to hit roughly 5.5 million flight hours.

• Sector Performance: Fractional and charter operators are leading the charge. Confidence is high, with 91% of operators expecting to fly the same or more than they did in 2025.

• Regional Hotspots: While the U.S. remains the dominant global market, specific regions are outperforming the baseline. Major aviation hubs like Florida and Texas are seeing year-over-year activity jumps of 2% to 3%.

MANUFACTURERS: LONG WAITLISTS, STEADY DELIVERIES

If you want a brand-new jet, you’ll need some patience. Manufacturers are working through massive waitlists, which is having a protective ripple effect on the rest of the market.

• Extended Visibility: General aviation OEM backlogs are historically deep. Major manufacturers are reporting backlogs that represent 2 to 4 years of production visibility.

• Delivery Forecast: Despite supply chain hiccups, deliveries are still moving forward. They are forecast to grow by 5% to 6.5% year-over-year in 2026, totaling over 880 units.

• Strategic Value: These deep new-build backlogs are acting as a safety net for the broader market, providing a solid floor for pre-owned residual values—especially for late-model airframes.

PRE-OWNED MARKET: INVENTORY TIGHTNESS & BIFURCATION

Finding the right used aircraft right now requires quick decision-making and a strong network, as the pre-owned market remains incredibly tight.

• Below Balanced Levels: Pre-owned inventory for sale sits at roughly 6% to 7.5% of the global fleet. For context, a “balanced market” typically requires 8% to 10% of the fleet to be listed for sale.

• The “Late-Model” Scarcity: The market is highly bifurcated. High-quality, late-model aircraft (less than 15 years old) are in extremely short supply. These coveted assets are frequently selling off-market or within just days of listing.

• Strong Momentum: Transaction volumes aren’t slowing down. Following record closed deals through IADA dealers at the end of 2025, that strong transaction momentum has carried directly into Q2 2026.

VALUE TRENDS: A SEGMENT-BY-SEGMENT LOOK

While overall values are stabilizing, we are starting to see slight downward pricing pressure specifically targeting aging assets. Buyers are becoming more discerning based on the size and age of the aircraft.

• Light & Mid-Size Jets: Prices here are relatively stable. However, buyers might find a few more options than recently expected, as inventory in the used mid-jet category recently ticked up 10.5% month-over-month.

• Heavy & Large Cabin Jets: Supply in this segment has tightened significantly, with inventory down 21% year-over-year. Despite the scarcity, asking prices have softened by approximately 7.6% for older models, showing that buyers are drawing a line on age.

• Turboprops: This remains the most resilient segment of the market. That said, buyers are growing increasingly cautious and sensitive to upcoming maintenance events and prevailing interest rates.

THE TAKEAWAY FOR Q2

The business aviation ecosystem is incredibly healthy, but it is operating under a pressure cooker of operational constraints. For sellers of late-model aircraft, it remains a highly advantageous environment. For buyers, success in Q2 and the rest of 2026 relies on moving quickly on premium listings and managing the long lead times required for maintenance and new deliveries.

MAXIMIZE YOUR POSITION IN TODAY’S MARKET

Navigating a bifurcated market with tight inventory and deep OEM backlogs requires more than just data—it requires expert execution. Whether you want to capitalize on the strong residual values of your late-model airframe or need an elite acquisition team to uncover off-market opportunities before they vanish, Holstein Aviation has the experience, global network, and insight to guide you through this supply-driven ceiling.

Contact Holstein Aviation today to discuss your Q3 aircraft acquisition or brokerage strategy.