The global economy remained more resilient in 2023 than economists expected. Economists predict slower economic growth in 2024 as a mild recession remains a possibility.
Flight operations declined 1% year-over-year in Q4 2023, but demand remained above pre-COVID levels with steady and sustainable growth expected going forward.
Aircraft Manufacturers backlog
Stable orders and the inability to increase production due to supply chain and labor constraints resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of 1-to-1 in Q4 2023. OEMs expect this ratio to remain about the same in 2024.
Both the new and pre-owned markets declined in 2023 compared to previous year levels as the business jet market began to normalize following a strong 2021 and 2022. In 2024, we may see pre-owned transactions stabilize as buyers and sellers begin to harmonize.
Aircraft listings increased in 2023, as aircraft sellers resumed publicly listing their aircraft for sale. Listings may continue to rise as new deliveries pick up in 2024, but should eventually stabilize.
Inventory stood at 6.9% of the total fleet at the end of Q4 2023. These levels are higher than the historical low of 3.1% in Q1 2021, but are still below the average levels of 10-11% over the last decade. Inventory is expected to gradually increase in 2024 as the market normalizes.